Before I begin with this - proceed with caution. I have been ICE COLD across all sports since the Super Bowl. I try my best to stick to plain statistics, and recently, the stats haven’t pointed me in a great direction. But nonetheless, I shan't give up on my strategy! This is how sports betting works, you can get on a hot streak and then a cold streak in the blink of an eye. Hopefully, I can break out of it this week with the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill.
Let’s take a look at how the course stacks up. Bay Hill is the 4th toughest course on Tour with a score relative to par sitting at +0.88. There’s plenty of things that can bite you at this course: it has the 11th most water danger holes on Tour with 9 total, it boasts the longest Par 3’s on Tour, and don’t forget about those Florida winds and what they did to guys in the Bear Trap last week. Despite having the 7th largest greens on Tour, they are firm and fast, so putting will be important.
The other important things at Bay Hill will be focusing on accuracy off the tee. The rough is grown to 3.5” and is overseeded rye, which can make it extra difficult to get out and get back on track. Scoring on long Par 3’s will be paramount and making your approach from the rough might be more important that the players will want to admit. Let’s take a look at the 5 stats I’ll be looking at for this week.
SG: Off-The-Tee - Driving accuracy and distance will be important this week. Avoiding the thick rough and navigating the Florida winds will be key to a successful weekend.
Par 3 Efficiency 200-225yds - With the longest Par 3’s on Tour, scoring from this distance will go a long way to contributing to success.
Approaches from 175-200yds from Rough - Getting out of the rough from this distance is going to be a frequent occurrence if they can’t keep the ball in the fairway off the tee.
Bogey Avoidance - We saw what happened to Daniel Berger at a comparable course last week - no bogies through 3 rounds got him a 5-shot 54 hole lead. And well, his Sunday round showed what happens when you can’t avoid those bogeys.
SG: Putting - These greens are big, firm, and fast. Being able to putt effectively and avoid 3-putts should help immensely.
Here are the guys in the Top 10 of each ranking:
SG: OTT - Rahm, Young, Mitchell, Im, Cantlay, Garcia, List, Morikawa, Conners, Palmer
Par 3 200-225 - Burns, Todd, Berger, Byrd, Na, Novak, Spieth, Conners, Reavie, Landry
Approach 175-200 RGH - Simpson, O’Hair, Sabbatini, Wallace, Schwartzel, Smith, Im, McDowell, English, Conners
Bogey Avoidance - Rahm, Garcia, Im, Burns, Morikawa, Cantlay, Berger, Zalatoris, Lowry, Thomas
SG: Putting - Gay, Morikawa, Todd, Schwab, Kraft, Kisner, McCarthy, O’Hair, Hughes, Lowry
Outright:
Corey Conners +6000 - He’s in the Top 10 in 3 of the categories above, ranks T45 in bogey avoidance, and T76 in SG:Putting. He’s missed the cut in 3 of his 4 last events, and historically at Bay Hill he’s missed 2/3 cuts. However, last year he finished 3rd so hopefully this pays off.
Top 10:
Sungjae Im +320 - He was the favorite last week, for some weird reason, and missed the cut. I think it was mostly just a bad weekend. He is in the Top 10 in 3/5 of the categories above. I think he turns it around and can pull off a Top 10 this week.
Will Zalatoris +350 - Top 10 in bogey avoidance, he’s also Top 25 in SG:OTT and Approach 175-200. The only thing that concerns me is his putting. He ranks 164th in SG:Putting, but if he can get hot, hopefully he can pull off a Top 10.
Top 20:
Sean O’Hair +700 - He ranks 2nd in approach from the rough and Top 10 in SG:Putting. He also ranks T49 in bogey avoidance and T33 in Par 3 efficiency.
Chez Reavie +500 - I don’t feel as good about this one, but he’s Top 10 in Par 3 efficiency, and Top 55 in bogey avoidance and approach.