I’m back from my week-long hiatus after starting a new job and finally finding some time to put together something for the Valero Open this week. There’s nothing to review from last week so let’s dive right in.
TPC San Antonio is a prime ball-striker’s course. Keeping the ball in play off the tee will be important, but hitting into the rough isn’t going to cause too many problems. It’s the bunkers and hazards that pose the problems. It has the third hardest Par-5’s on Tour, so it’s important to score well and take advantage. Wind also comes into play here, which paired with firm greens provides the worst GIR% from the fairway on Tour.
Let’s look at the 5 key stats and the Top 10 at each position:
SG: OTT - Rahm, Mitchell, Garcia, Young, Steele, List, Conners, Zalatoris, Buckley
Ball Striking - Rahm, Morikawa, Hovland, Conners, Matsuyama, Im, Power, Burns, Glover, Henley
SG: APP - Henley, Zalatoris, Hovland, Donald, Thomas, Casey, Hoge, C Smith, Burns, Matsuyama
SG: ATG - Knous, Kuchar, Fleetwood, Jones, Gooch, Neimann, Jager, Willet, Sabbatini, Berger
Par 5 Scoring - Cantlay, Smith, Fitzpatrick, Thomas, Homa, Matsuyama, Power, Gooch, Hatton
Outright:
Chris Kirk +3000 - He ranks in the Top 68 or better in all five stats above. He missed the cut at the Players, but he finished T5 at the API and T7 the week before at the Honda. He also finished 6th last year.
Hideki Matsuyama +2000 - Statistically, he fits. He ranks no lower than 48th in all of the above stats. He’s also won twice already this season, and is playing well lately too.
Top 10:
Corey Conners +250 - He’s a previous winner here and ranks in the Top 7 in both SG: OTT and Ball Striking.
Top 20:
Sahith Theegala +320 - He ranks 68th or better in the last three stats. He has typically been playing very well early on and then fades over the weekend. I may sprinkle a FRL on him too.
Matt Jones +500 - He’s 4th in SG: ATG and T31 in Par 5 Scoring. He’s mediocre at best on the other three stats, but we only need him to finish Top 20.